Friday, May 4, 2012
At the Palais de la Mediterranee
Nice

It is 9:30 p.m. in France, two and a half hours away from the end of the presidential campaign of 2012 between the two winners of the first round, Francois Hollande and Nicholas Sarkozy. The tradition is that Friday evening the candidates stop campaigning. Sunday everyone votes. The new president assumes his duties almost immediately.

I confirm my attendance via e-mail for the Grand Meeting de Soutien a Nicolas Sarkozy to be presided over by Francois Fillon, the Prime Minister. The meeting is to be held in the Palais de la Mediterranee, a white Art Deco building on the Promenade des Anglais, the avenue by the beach, about a block from the Hotel Negresco, one of the most famous symbols of Nice.

I walk into the Palais, ask for the Venetian Room, the conference hall designated for the event. I have only to hand over my knapsack and go through a metal detector, and I am admitted. It is a little after 5 p.m., the doors have just opened, and the meeting is supposed to start at 6 p.m. The meeting actually does not start until about 6:30 p.m., but even just after the doors open, the hall is half full. By the time proceedings are underway, the room is bursting: the campaign is following the playbook for a successful event.

I am able to find a seat near the stage a few seats in next to a middle-aged woman turned to talk to some older men in the row behind. Her name is Patricia, and she used to run a modeling agency. Seated next to her is her husband. She knows everybody --the two gentlemen behind her are the owners of the last gas station in Nice, pieds noirs, as those who had to leave Algeria when the Evian accords ended the French-Algerian War in 1962 are called. It is fifty years since thousands of French citizens crossed the Mediterranean to return to a country that did not welcome then. This year, however, some kind of recognition has come belatedly. The gas station owners are men of slight figure and fine, sunburned features. I overhear one of them say "He had some nice words to say about us, the President did", referring to a public statement by Sarkozy in recognition of the contribution of the French d'Outre Mer --the French Beyond the Sea.

In the hall, a thundering passage of music with a regular beat, plays over and over again as the hall fills. The hall is eventually so packed that a velvet rope is put between those standing and those seated to prevent the standees from spilling over into the aisles and blocking the exits. At 6:30 p.m. the chief of staff to the mayor of Nice, Christian Estrosi, gets up on stage and takes a microphone and walks to the side of the stage.

By now all the speakers but the Prime Minister are in the hall, and the security detail is moving them forward to the front row of the Venetian Room. The first to speak is Jean Leonetti, the Mayor of Antibes and Minister of European Affairs in Sarkozy's cabinet. He is a grey-haired man who speaks softly, but winds the crowd up, speaking of the insult to the sacrifice of French soldiers who died in Afghanistan (there were fourteen) by those who said "They died for nothing" implicitly an attack on Hollande, who wants to withdraw France's contingent before the U.S. gives the "all clear", a violation of an understanding Sarkozy reached with Barack Obama.

The crowd, which is comprised of many retirees, judging by their age, does not need to be rallied. They are the militants, as the French call those publicly declared for a candidate or registered in a political party. Several have large French flags, which they are eager to put into action. Others are part of the chorus that boos loudly whenever Jean Leonetti denounces Francois Hollande's politics. Demonstrating disapproval like this almost amounts to a team sport in France: the boos are stagey, the crowd is playing its part, and enjoying itself.

Next Michele Tabarot, the Mayor of Cannes and a member of the Assemblee Nationale speaks, touching upon the need for laws to protect women, equal pay for equal work, protection against domestic violence. She then starts to talk about Nicolas Sarkozy and his commitment to France. She works her way towards the end of her speech, finishing with a rallying cry: "Get out the vote, talk to everyone you know and Sarkozy will be President Sunday night!" The crowd is changing Ni-co-las!, Ni-co-las over and over, by the time she finishes.

Eric Ciotti, another member of the Assemblee Nationale, speaks in more strong terms against Francois Hollande, his arrogance, the threat his proposals pose to the competitiveness of France. He too, satisfies the audience --one thing French politicians seem to do well, is to bring the crowds along with them. Ciotti, too, is a smooth speaker and does his part to bring the party faithful along with him.

There is a pause in the proceedings while the Mayor's chief of staff explains to the crowd that the Prime Minister was delayed because the airport was closed, but that he will arrive shortly. Indeed, his arrival is anticipated by the organization of a cordon of youthful Sarkozy supporters, Jeunes, carrying French flags, lining up in two rows on either side of the aisle nearesst me. Soon after Francois Fillon, a man of medium height with a headful of black hair, dark eyes, oval face and a straight, slightly long nose (these seem to be found in France in a higher percentage of the population that other countries) emerges out of the crowd of men who form his security detail. He walks slowly, shakes hands and smiles softly. He takes his seat quickly so that the meeting can continue.

Last to speak before the Prime Minister is Christian Estrosi, the Mayor of Nice, and also Member of the Assemblee Nationale, among other titles. --Having two jobs at once is possible under the French system and is known as the comble des mandats. In fact, if, as in the case of Alain Juppe in the Chirac administration, one is a Minister, a member of the Assemblee Nationale and a Mayor (of Bordeaux), the official can name someone to discharge the job of Mayor, as Juppe did.

As Patricia tells me, Estrosi has been with Sarkozy from the beginning and is one of the most loyal of his allies. Il etait avec Sarko meme quand lui etait au bout du trou-- He was supportive of Sarko even when Sarko was at the bottom of the hole. Estrosi, a man of medium height with a nice head of chestnut brown hair, brown eyes and a becoming tan, was the youngest member of the Assemblee Nationale in 1988, elected at the age of 33. Nicholas Sarkozy, five months older, was also elected that year. Even then, Estrosi told the crowd, Sarkozy had a vision for France, a vision he laid out in his first book. (Applause.) Estrosi said he knew, hearing Sarkozy in the Assembly that he wanted to work with him.

Estrosi then speaks of his mother, who came from Italy as a refugee in 1934 and became a citizen, and of the hard labor of families like his who built up the country at great personal sacrifice. He speaks with a warmth of feeling that conveys to the crowd that he is one of them, all those people who do not want to see their France die away. Then he thanks Francois Fillon for according Nice the honor of receiving the Prime Minister's last visit of the campaign, the thirty-seventh in Nice since the campaign began. He builds his speech to a climax, simultaneously setting the stage for Francois Fillon, who immediately takes the stage as soon as Estrosi leaves it.

The first thing I notice about Francois Fillon as he stands there is that his suit is perfectly cut and beautifully pressed, as is his raspberry colored shirt and dark tie. The second is the way Francois Fillon speaks French: I have heard about this from several people of French nationality. The substance of the comments is that he speaks excellent French, which means the language flows smoothly when he speaks. When I listen to him I am struck by his accent: he speaks like a person whose mother tongue has never been polluted by words of foreign origin, whose inflection has never been altered by hearing another way of speaking the language of his parents. He has never spoken the language other than the way his parents did. His French is softly nasal and velvet-y.

He also keeps his forearms close to his body. Unlike Christian Estosi, who opens his arms wide as he orates, inviting his public, Francois Fillon speaks gently and with poise. His discussion centers on the economy. He says France is a nation of sixty-five million people in a world of 7 billion. It is confronted with competition from China, India, Brazil, Korea, from families in those countries willing to make the sacrifices French families made two generations ago to create the way of life most now enjoy. Hollande proposes to renegotiate France's commitment to the European Union. With the Union, Fillon says, France has 400 million more allies. Without them it stands alone.

Francois Hollande says, --Fillon tells the audience-- that he will refuse the economic reforms Angela Merkel, the German chancellor is forcing on France. Francois Fillon observes ironically that anyone who has ever tried that with his banker knows that to do so can only end badly. He speaks of the idea of France and the nature of sovereignty, two different, but interconnected things. Sovereignty depends on ability of the government in power to avoid expensive interest rate payments on the debt which are carried on into the next generation. Likewise a scheme of social payments that is unaffordable. If the government avoids its responsibilities and fails to manage these challenges, the idea of France (liberty, equality, fraternity) will be threatened by the burden of its economic collapse.

It is an intellectual argument, elegantly expressed. Fillon becomes more animated in making it, putting his elbow on the rostrum and leaning forward as if speaking directly to one person, although he still never opens his arms. The only gesture indicating a slight nervousness, is opening his jacket button and closing it again.

He has a reservoir of good will, thanks to his long service to Nicolas Sarkozy. He never let himself put in a position where he would say something disloyal to SarkoHe has been loyal to him to the end, Patricia tells me. As Prime Minister, he is the leader of the UMP majority in the Assemblee Naitonale. As such, he stewards legislation through the lower house, which has passed measures reforming the administration of universities in France, as well as ending the inheritance tax, which affected particularly those who inherited a family home which increased in value over decades. He specifically thanks the Deputes present with whom he worked. After he finishes --to thunderous applause and chants of Fillon! Fillon! --he remembers someone he forgot to thank and returns to the lectern, before asking everyone to work their hardest over the next 48 hours to elect Nicolas Sarkozy.

Nice has the distinction of being the city in France which voted in the largest numbers for Nicolas Sarkozy and the lowest for Francois Hollande. In the last election the UMP got about 69% of the vote. So the Prime Minister's visit is also a "Thank you" to the most loyal of Sarkozy supporters. (Annency, in the Haute-Savoie departement in the Rhone-Alpes region, is another Sarkozy bastion.)

The meeting has lasted three and a half hours and has not been dull; indeed it was one of the most effective political rallies I have every attended. The campaign has handled this last appearance by the Prime Minister perfectly --everyone attending leaves the room energized, all of the speakers preceding the Prime Minister played their parts perfectly, Francois Fillon was dignified and reassuring. Roger Ailes, the political consultant widely scene as the architect of the modern political campaign, could not have wished for better.

But will it --and all the other meetings to rally Sarkozy supporters throughout France tonight, be enough? Francois Bayrou, the centrist MoDem candidate, asked his voters to cast their votes for Hollande. --In 2007, he endorsed neither Segolene Royale nor Nicolas Sarkozy. Marine Le Pen, the Front Nationale candidate who received 17% of the vote in the first round, did not endorse anyone and encouraged her voters to submit a blank if they went to the polls. The leading leftist parties --Front de Gauche and the Green Party-- are supporting Hollande. The polls report a 2% advantage for Hollande.

One of the political players present at the meeting before the elected officials assemble says "Forget what the polls say: people say one thing on the telephone, but when in the voting booth" (--which the French call l'isoloir, a word which heightens the sense of the solitariness of the proceeding) they will reflect and vote for Sarko."

But will they?