Sunday, April 22, 2012
Avignon
First round of the French elections

My hotel, the Avignon Grand Hotel, across the street from the Avignon Centre train station is, at 140 Euros a night, nothing to write home about: a two story motel really. My first room, 217, smells of paint, and the unprepossessing view of the parking lot and the train tracks does nothing for me, the medieval "tapestries" in the room notwithstanding. Having booked four nights in Avignon, could have been a mistake, if I am obligated to remain here.

I go back down to the front desk, where the amiable young man who greeted me is joined by another of the same mien. I expect a negation of my objection to the room, but both quickly agree --there has been a recent renovation and some rooms still smell of the paint-- they will show me another room. --And I am not obliged to stay beyond the first night.

I am taken to another room, which is an immediate improvement: simply made clean white linens on the beds, no paint smell. I am too tired to do anzthing but go to bed, and think about my possibilities in the morning.

I actually sleep quite well --the sheets are a soft cotton, the pillows, too. The room is a sort of suite with a sitting area and a full bath. I have a large balconz, that overlooks the hotel courtyard and part of the parking lot and the SNCF train station, but perhaps I can manage here without having to move. Certainly the connection for the train to Marseille will be a cinch from here, and the outlying area does not seem at all raffish, as the terminus of a line often can seem.

In the morning, the first thing I do is fill the bath and wash the clothes I wore yesterday in it. It had never occurred to me what a natural washing machine a bathtub is, particularly one with a rack from which clothes can be hung on hangers to dry. I wssh everything in the bath gel the hotel provides and quickly hang all to dry. If I am staying four nights everything --including the heavy socks I wear with my hiking boots-- will be dry before my departure.

it is Sunday, so I am off to Mass, and then to find out what I can about where those from Avignon will be voting today. The French system of voting still used paper ballots the last time I was able to observe, back when Chirac was running, but perhaps things have changed since then.

Election Day

Nothing has changed: the French still vote with paper ballots, and they are willing to give me a souvenir of my visit to the polling place: the envelope in which the voter --who must arrive with his identity card and a voting card to receive a chance to vote-- places his "vote" --a card with the name of his candidate, selected among the array of cards for all the candidates-- in the envelope, which he drops into a plastic bag in the voting booth. Whether the first round, decided tonight, will influence the result, remains to be seen. According to many observers, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the Front de Gauche candidate, was supposed to pull more voters from Francois Hollande than Marine Le Pen, the Front National candidate, would siphon off from Nicholas Sarkozy, suggesting a Socialist victory on May 6. However. With Francois Hollande receiving the most votes overall, 29.3%, Melenchon pulls only11%, while Le Pen pulls a surprising 18%, suggesting that if Le Pen's voters move to Sarkozy in the second round, he would be re-elected.
Then there is the rate of abstention: 22% of French voters have not bothered to vote, although the turnout is historically high. It was widely hoped --by people of good faith on the right as well as the left, that Marine Le Pen --whose policy prescriptions for France contemplate its departure from the European Union, a policy of autarchy, and anti-immigrant measures-- would be dealt a reversal. It was widely feared by many on the center right that Melenchon would exacerbate further France's inclination towards class warfare.

Francois Hollande, in acknowledging his status as winner of the first round, emphasizes what he describes as a strong turnout. The final numbers are Hollande 28.30%; Sarkozy 25.80%, a difference of 2.5% The next two weeks will be a battle by Sarkozy to grab as many of the voters who supported Le Pen as possible, while Hollande will turn his efforts to persuading Melenchon and Bayrou suporters to choose him. However, the winner of the first round has the advantage in the second: Hollande is more likely to pick up Melenchon and Bayrou's voters than Sarkozy is to pick up Le Pen's.

Sarkozy waits until Hollande has spoken to make his statement, his motorcade setting out from the Elysees Palace to La Mutualite, his party headquarters. The media chases the Presidential motorcade, with some of them asking rhetorically for the President to address a word to their viewers in advance of the formal address to suporters at headquarters. When Sarkozy arrives, he is greeted by a tumultuous crowd waving large French flags. His manner is dignified and gracious, attitudes not normally associated with Sarkozy in the minds of French voters. He takes the position that tomorrow the real campaign begins, demonstrating a determination that will have to serve him well in the next two weeks.